On Imbalanced Regression with Hoeffding Trees

arXiv:2602.22101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many real-world applications provide a continuous stream of data that is subsequently used by machine learning models to solve regression tasks of interest. Hoeffding trees and their variants have a long-standing tradition due to their effectiveness, either alone or as base models in broader ensembles. At the same time a recent line of work in batch learning has shown that kernel density estimation (KDE) is an effective approach for smoothed predictions in imbalanced regression tasks [Yang et al., 2021]. Moreover, another recent line of work for batch learning, called hierarchical shrinkage (HS) [Agarwal et al., 2022], has introduced a post-hoc regularization method for decision trees that does not alter the structure of the learned tree. Using a telescoping argument we cast KDE to streaming environments and extend the implementation of HS to incremental decision tree models. Armed with these extensions we investigate the performance of decision trees that may enjoy such options in datasets commonly used for regression in online settings. We conclude that KDE is beneficial in the early parts of the stream, while HS hardly, if ever, offers performance benefits. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/marinaAlchirch/DSFA_2026.